USGS Predicts Big CA Quakes in Next 30 Years

A magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in California within the next 30 years is almost a sure thing, according to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists, who place the chances of a major quake at better than 99 percent.

Perhaps even more ominous is USGS' prediction of a 46 percent chance of a devastating 7.5 or greater quake in the next 30 years, probably centered in the heavily populated southern half of California.

According to USGS, the probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67 percent, and in the San Francisco Bay Area it is 63 percent.

The infamous San Andreas fault continues to pose the greatest risk to the entire state, showing a 59 percent probability of spawning at least one magnitude 6.7 or larger quake in the next 30 years.

"This new, comprehensive forecast advances our understanding of earthquakes and pulls together existing research with new techniques and data," explained USGS geophysicist and lead scientist Ned Field in a press release. "Planners, decision makers and California residents can use this information to improve public safety and mitigate damage before the next destructive earthquake occurs."

The forecasts were released as part of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), developed by a multidisciplinary group of scientists and engineers, known as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

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