In 1992, Paul Tsongas won the New Hampshire Democratic primary, but Bill Clinton won the Democratic nomination and the presidency.
In 1996, Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire Republican primary, but lost the nomination to Bob Dole, who lost the presidential election to incumbent Democrat Bill Clinton.
In 2000, John McCain started strong, winning the New Hampshire GOP primary, only to falter down the stretch and lose the nomination to George W. Bush, who also went on to win the contested presidential election to Al Gore.
Fact is, that from 1952 through 2000, the winner of the New Hampshire primary failed to win the final presidential nomination 9 times.
Despite those facts, the free media exposure and publicity heaped on the New Hampshire primary makes it a key state for the candidates. Media market studies have indicated that over half of all network TV news stories about the primary elections from January through February are about New Hampshire.
When Jimmy Carter won the New Hampshire primary in 1976, Time and Newsweek both declared him the Democratic front-runner. One week later, when "Scoop" Jackson whipped Carter in Massachusetts primary -- winning over seven times as many votes -- Time and Newsweek wrote only that Carter's "momentum might have slowed." (Carter actually finished fourth in the Mass. primary.)
How important is the publicity generated by the New Hampshire primary? Through 1972, winning candidates saw an average 8% increase in their national polling standings, and an average increase of 15% from 1976-1984.
While winning the New Hampshire primary clearly does not assure final nomination, it just as clearly doesn't hurt.
