| Election 2002: Control of Congress | |
Even while their Labor Day hotdogs and burgers were being digested, voters were being fed a helping of hi-frequency campaigning for the Nov. 5, 2002 mid-term election and its grand prize -- control of the United States Congress.
What's at stake for Congress
All 435 seats in the House and 34 off 100 Senate seats are up for election
in November. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, while
Democrats control the Senate by a single vote.
House:
Republicans: 222
Democrats: 210
Independents: 2
Vacant Seats: 1 (Ohio's 17th District. See: Traficant Expelled from House)A total of 11 incumbent Representatives -- 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats -- are retiring and will not be running for re-election.
Senate:
Republicans: 49
Democrats: 50
Independents: 1Of the 34 incumbent Senators up for re-election, 20 are Republicans, 14 are Democrats. Four Senators -- all Republicans -- are retiring and not running for re-election. They are: Phil Gramm (TX), Jesse Helms (NC), Fred Thompson (TN) and Strom Thurmond (SC).
See: Election 2002: Who's Up and Who's Retiring? for a complete list of Senators up for re-election, and Senators and Representatives not running due to retirement.
In addition to control of the U.S. Congress, 36 states will elect or re-elect governors, including electoral vote powerhouses California, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
What's at stake for the White House
While President Bush is not up for re-election, the outcome of the November
elections will have a major impact on his chances for re-election in 2004.
While his response to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks took President Bush's public approval ratings to all-time highs, Democrats hope concerns over corporate scandals and the still-lagging economy will help their candidates win enough key races to take control of both House and Senate.
Democratic control of Congress for the next two years would doom much of the president's social policy agenda, including the meat of his Faith Based Initiative and health care reform, while severely degrading his chanced for election to a second term.
Republican control of Congress would clear the road for Bush's legislative agenda and allow the White House to establish the major campaign issues to be debated in 2004.
Mid-term history favors Democrats
Since the election of Republican President Eisenhower in 1952, the party of a
newly elected president has lost congressional seats in every mid-term election.
In the 1996 mid-term elections held during President Clinton's first term,
Republicans did well enough to take over control of both chambers of Congress.
Democrats hope this history will work in their favor in 2002. Republicans hope President Bush's public approval ratings -- the highest of any new president going into a mid-term election -- will help break the 50-year trend.
Key Races
While most pollsters and pundits think Republicans will retain control of the
House, every seat in the Senate is critical and a number of very competitive
races are developing.
Democratic incumbent Senators in Missouri, South Dakota, Minnesota and New Jersey face strong Republican challengers, while Republican incumbents in Arkansas, New Hampshire and Colorado are expecting challenging races.
Republicans will also be challenged to protect four Senate seats left open by the retirements of incumbents Phil Gramm of Texas, Jesse Helms of North Carolina, Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Strom Thurmond of South Carolina. Republican candidates are currently polling ahead of Democrats in all but Texas, where the race between Democrat Ron Kirk and Republican Texas Attorney General John Cornyn polls too close to call.
Republican strategy
Look for Republican House and Senate candidates to zero in on President Bush's
leadership in the war on terror, his tax-cutting initiatives, his attempts to
revitalize the U.S. economy and his almost 90-percent public approval rating.
Democratic strategy
Hoping to steer voter attention away from the war on terror, Democratic
candidates will focus on recent corporate accounting scandals and President
Bush's ties to big-business, the weakening economy, the return to deficit
government spending and the Bush administration's plans for dealing with Iraq
and Saddam Hussein.

