Dateline: 01/07/03

Annual federal budgets -- two of them -- will dominate lawmakers' days, weeks and months, when the 108th U.S. Congress convenes on January 7.

The first order of business for the new Congress will be the completion of 11 of the 13 spending bills for fiscal year 2003, which actually began back on Oct. 1, 2002. Between prolonged debates over creating the Department of Homeland Security and campaigning for the mid-term elections, the 107th Congress found time to send only the fiscal 2003 Defense and Military Construction appropriations bills to President Bush for his signature. Since Oct. 1, the rest of the federal government has continued to operate on a series of continuing resolutions, which extended funding for programs at levels set by the FY 2002 budget.

What's $10 billion between friends?  
Then under Democratic control, the last Senate proposed a 2003 spending package totaling some $10 billion more than the $750.5 billion maximum requested by President Bush last February and agreed to by the GOP-controlled House. While Republicans now control both chambers of Congress, passage of the GOP-backed spending package is not a sure thing. 

In December, House Appropriations Committee Chairman C.W. "Bill" Young (R-Florida, 10th). told reporters that GOP leaders could not guarantee the $750.5 billion spending line could be held. "This isn't going to be easy," he said. 

The $750.5 billion proposed by the White House represents only a 2 percent increase in federal spending over 2002, a figure much lower than the 8 percent spending increase negotiated by and Congress for 2002. Federal spending grew by 8.6 percent during 2000, President Clinton's final year in office.

Bipartisan budget analysts have estimated that the $750.5 billion cap will require spending cuts of up to $14 billion for several discretionary domestic programs, many of which are favored by congressional Democrats.

Two budgets at once just won't work
As if finishing the 2003 budget were not enough work for incoming lawmakers, President Bush is scheduled to submit his fiscal year 2004 budget proposal on Feb 3. No Congress has ever faced the task of dealing with two federal budgets at once and the 108th Congress has no intention of breaking this ground. President Bush, along with GOP congressional leaders, will drive for completion of the 2003 budget by Jan. 28, the date tentatively set for Bush's State of the Union address. 

Considering that Congress will actually conduct legislative business on only about six days during all of January, how can this timetable be achieved?

The ominous omnibus spending bill solution
As it has done in response to past budget crunches, Congress may choose to bundle all of the remaining 11 appropriations bills of the 2003 budget into a single, "omnibus" spending bill. 

While these massive bills certainly expedite the budget process, their thousands of pages tend to become pork-enriched and make it next to impossible for the public to determine how much is being spent for what.

Passage of an omnibus spending bill in the Senate is by no means a sure thing. With Republicans holding a slim 51-48 majority, just a few members, unhappy with spending cuts, could hold up the legislation. In addition, Democrats are expected to use the 2003 budget debates to launch their opposition to President Bush's 2004 economic stimulus package.

The 2004 budget awaits
During the second week in January, the White House will be announcing several features of President Bush's fiscal year 2004 budget proposal, all destined to result in hearty debate. 

• Economic stimulus/tax-cutting package totaling $600 to $650 billion over the next 10 years
• Medicare reform including a prescription drug package for seniors
• Increasing education spending by $10 billion to help poor students
• Extension of unemployment benefits

How the budget process is supposed to work

In all too rare "perfect" years, the federal budget process is designed to proceed as follows:

February: President submits budget proposal to Congress

March - September: Congress reviews White House budget proposal, develops its own budget and approves the 13 appropriations bills. The president signs the appropriations bills

October 1: The government's new fiscal year begins and the new budget goes into effect