Dateline: 04/12/02

El Niño, that hotter-than-normal glob of Pacific Ocean water that played havoc with the weather during 1997-98, may be back, according to NOAA scientists, who say Americans could start feeling the effects by mid-summer.

Depending on its still unknown strength, scientists say the expected 2002 El Niño could cause fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocuan and a drier-than-normal summer in the southwest, to more Nor'easters along the East Coast next winter.

"This El Niño is still forming, and it's unclear now at what level of intensity it will be once it's fully developed," said Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, USN (ret.), NOAA's administrator. "If sea-surface temperatures continue their warming trend in the equatorial Pacific, we'll likely know the intensity by late May or June." Lautenbacher added that April and May should be the best months for predicting the intensity of the new El Niño.

Higher-than-normal ocean water temperature is El Niño's calling card and during March, surface and sub-surface water temperatures near the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru averaged from 2 to 3 degrees C (4 to 6 F) above average. Surface water temperatures in the region average about 27 degrees C (81 F) during March.

Scientists say more evidence of a brewing El Niño is turning up as increased rainfall and cloudiness over the extreme eastern tropical Pacific, including the Galapagos Islands, and over the west-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

As El Niño continues to develop, scientists said the possible impacts on the United States include:

• Fewer tropical systems during the Atlantic hurricane season; 
• Higher number of Nor'easters along the East Coast during the 2002-2003 winter; 
• A drier-than-normal summer monsoon season in the southwest; 
• A drier-than-normal fall and winter for the Pacific Northwest; 
• A warmer-than-normal late fall and winter in the northern Great Plains and upper Midwest, and 
• A wetter-than-normal winter for the Gulf Coast states. 

If the intensity of the El Niño is strong, central and Southern California could experience wetter-than-normal conditions.

According to NOAA, El Niño episodes occur about every four-to-five years and can last up to 12-to-18 months. NOAA will continue monitoring El Niño developments and provide monthly updates. 

"One of our major research findings is no two El Niño episodes are alike," said Brig. Gen. Jack Kelly USAF (ret.), director of NOAA's National Weather Service. "Americans have vivid memories of the effects of the strong 1997-98 El Niño, making many people wary of this one. But we will need to follow developments closely in the coming months to determine just how strong or weak this El Niño may get."